Fall 95 Comdex Trip Report

Mass Market 3D in 1997

Trends

There are 5 new chip sets for accelerating PCs into the 3D realm. The chip sets will be bundlded in OEM machines (Compaq,..) and sold as addin cards (Creative, Diamond,..).

Microsoft is still playing with there Direct3D API. (By the way, why is everything Direct now ?). Until Microsoft finalizes the API, the market is going to be slow.

As it does ramp up in Xmas 96 and in a big way in late 96, the implications are very profound. The performance advantage of dedicated hardware for 3D is enormous, and makes video games, cad programs, really fly. Doom in 800 x 600 resoultion is so real that it is down right scary. Is SGI a short ??

Implications

Demand for 3D peripherals will increase rapidly. Why did all prior attempts fail (Cyberman et. al) ? The market simply was not ready. The current 3D generation that are there now (or almost there) include:

virtual reality headsets - They will do a lot better when real software is there. Virtual i/O is already telling people about a 640x480 headset in mid96.
3D shutter glasses - low cost versions of the Crystal Eyes
3D input devices - Microsoft's 3D joystick, the low cost Spaceball (too confusing for fun), and hopefully some TRK300 based products.

Demand for network 3D games, model libraries, and 3D authoring tools will obviously take off. There will be a lot of non-obvious apps too, as always happens when a new technology finds its way into a lot of peoples hands. I think 3D + Net tools will enable one to rapidly put together worlds, characters, and special effects. All of the above are big opportunities for our WV efforts.

Internet.Now

The browsers are out in strong force. The groupware folks are starting to emerge, but only had a small prescence. We are still way out on the learning curve and aboslutely asking the right questions ! Besides HTML (and VRML) browsers and the traditional apps (Telnet,...), nobody present has new apps for the Net in release.

As a side note, Netscape had the highest booth density of the show. They had a very small booth (5 NSCP people), and at any given time, they had about 250 people crammed together. I felt like I was at a Madonna concert !

Windows95

In his speech, Bill Gates asked, "Has anyone not heard of Windows95 ?". When no one raised their hand, he said "Good, we can stop running those adds." I think the industry has decided that Windows95 is a great thing. Everybody is so releaved that it is not another Win3.0. They know that supporting it now (as opposed to one year from now) is a business must. Expect a very fast transition to Win95, in all areas of computing.